🔗 Share this article Trump's Bold Claim on American Energy Investment in Venezuelan Draws Expert Caution. Market specialists have shown deep caution regarding optimistic statements that US energy majors will rapidly invest tens of billions of dollars to rebuild the country's dilapidated oil infrastructure. Demand for Absolute Guarantees Absent an “iron-clad guarantee” of full reimbursement from the Washington, analysts expect international firms to act with extreme caution. “It seems premature to speculate on any upcoming plans,” a representative stated in response. The optimistic timeline of less than a year and a half was publicly suggested. Yet, realistic assessments paint a more cautious outlook. A More Realistic Schedule “It is likely going to take 36 months for any significant production bounce,” said one industry expert. He suggested oil companies would likely spend: Year one: Navigating new government and security contracts. Year two: Beginning reconstruction of equipment. The third year: Being able to boost yield. This would lead to an rise of around half a million bpd maybe by late 2028. Interest vs. Appetite for Spending Experts make a critical difference between firms' attention and their appetite to invest heavily. “I think their interest is an eight, on a range of ten. I think their willingness is a mid-range score, because there is a lack of certainty yet.” Experienced diplomats in the region reinforce this caution. The expectation is that majors will publicly talk up the opportunity while actually proceeding with extreme caution. The Enormous Cost The required investment would be enormous. University analysis suggest that adding between 500,000 and a million bpd would require over $10 billion in capital spending over several years. Yet, rebuilding output to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years. The Unanswered Question of Government Backing The idea of oil giants being paid back by the US taxpayer has been often raised. But, formal assurances on such a mechanism have not yet been provided. The absence of clarity is the key reason behind the sector's caution. Operators seek guarantees against sovereign risk and the risk that a subsequent administration could refuse any promise. “You need to be protected from sovereign risk, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela before.” Ultimately, while political promises runs high, the practical risks suggest a journey of slow deliberation for any major venture in the country's oil sector.