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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.