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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."